2026 MWC Shanghai Observation: 6G Shifts from 'What to Do' to 'How to Do', Satellites Enter Large-Scale Networking Cost Reduction Phase

Recently, the 2026 MWC Shanghai opened as scheduled. This year's exhibition hall exudes a cautious pragmatic feel: the 6G industry ecosystem zone and the 'Future Constellation' satellite area were popular, but the industry is more keen on deducing 'when will technology turn into real money.'

Blue Whale tech reporters found that in the 6G direction, the three major paths—integrated sensing and communication, AI-native, and air-space-ground integration—are no longer controversial, and chip manufacturers have even launched pre-research preparations in advance; in the satellite Internet field, the 'land grab' for orbital frequencies has basically ended, and large-scale networking and cost reduction have become new themes.

However, consensus stops at the technical level. Terminal manufacturers and investment institutions are generally waiting: the former are waiting for killer applications, the latter can't calculate the return cycle. Even international satellite players who have achieved profitability are struggling in the early cultivation of the civilian market.

When the financial account for 5G investment is not fully settled, 6G and satellite Internet are collectively entering a transition period of 'clear vision, difficult realization.' The technical route is narrowing, but the commercial outlet is widening. Under realistic investment return constraints, the industry needs a more pragmatic answer than 'grand narratives.'

6G Technical Paths Converge, Commercial Loop Still Under Exploration

Walking into the 6G industry ecosystem exhibition area in Hall N3 of MWC Shanghai, five major sections—Beijing 6G Lab General Area, Communication Enhancement, Integrated Sensing and Communication, Integrated Communication-Computing-Intelligence, and Air-Space-Ground Integration—clearly break down 6G's core technical vision. Staff introduced that this is the first time MWC Shanghai has set up a dedicated hall for 6G, sending a clear industrial signal: 6G has moved from concept discussion to the key stage of system verification.

'If last year people were still debating what 6G should do, this year the debate is about how to do it and what trade-offs to make,' a technician in the Beijing 6G Lab general area told reporters. Currently, the three major enhancement paths—integrated sensing and communication, AI-native, and air-space-ground integration—have basically formed industry consensus, and key technologies such as terahertz communication and intelligent metasurfaces have entered prototype verification stages.

The pace of layout in the upstream part of the industry chain is clearly accelerating. At this exhibition, Qualcomm demonstrated an end-to-end 6G prototype system, Galaxy Aerospace publicly displayed its second-generation direct-to-phone phased array antenna for the first time in the 6G industry ecosystem area, and vivo showcased its 6G pre-research prototype and technical roadmap.

It is understood that unlike Xiaomi, which focuses on underlying transmission algorithms, and OPPO, which focuses on communication paradigm innovation, vivo's demonstration direction is more oriented towards end-to-end systems and application landing. Its complete 6G test system covers full-link aspects including MR terminals, 6G terminal prototypes (UE), 6G base stations (RAN), and core networks.

A site representative from a domestic chip manufacturer said that the company's internal 6G pre-research team size has doubled compared to last year: 'Waiting until the standard is frozen would be too late; we must do the technical reserves first.'

However, compared to upstream enthusiasm, terminal manufacturers are relatively cautious. Multiple mobile phone brands' 6G terminal plans generally responded as 'closely monitoring,' and few consumer-grade product demonstrations for 6G were seen on display. A 6G pre-research director from a top-five global smartphone brand said in an informal exchange that it is currently difficult to provide a clear 6G phone commercial roadmap, not due to technical insufficiency, but because the industry is still assessing user demand and application scenarios. In his view, the experience dividend of 5G has not yet been fully realized, and 6G's envisioned immersive holography and multi-sensory scenarios are still some distance from the mass consumer market.

The investment circle is also cautious. An early-stage investor focused on the TMT sector, after observing multiple 6G area demonstrations, said that the technology is impressive in its direction, but from an investment perspective, the capital returns of 5G are still in the digestion cycle, and the subsequent scale of R&D and network deployment investment for 6G is huge, with exit cycles and return expectations currently lacking sufficient data support. He said that for now, it is more about keeping track and observing, and the timing for action still requires clearer commercial signals.

'Future Constellation': Pattern Set, Profitability Path Yet to Be Verified

Unlike the 6G exhibition area's focus on key technology verification, the first-time 'Future Constellation' satellite industry zone presents a different industrial rhythm: the orbital landscape has taken initial shape, and participants have entered a phase of intensive cultivation of resources and costs.

Domestic low-orbit broadband and narrowband constellation operators such as Space Dayu, Guodian Hi-Tech, and Yuanxin Satellite, as well as international players like Iridium, set up sizable booths. Space Dayu displayed real low-orbit satellite Internet terminal devices for scenarios like ocean-going vessels and desert mining areas; Guodian Hi-Tech focused on promoting the Tianqi constellation's case applications in the IoT field; Yuanxin Satellite engineers made live connections, playing test video call footage based on the 'Qianfan Constellation.'

'The battle for satellite Internet orbit and frequency resources has come to an end; the current key lies in large-scale deployment and cost control,' said a field representative from Guodian Hi-Tech. He revealed that batch production costs of narrowband communication payloads continue to decline, but also noted that the user scale of satellite Internet services has not yet reached the breakeven point. For the next few years at least, government and industry orders will remain the backbone of revenue.

During the process of forming a profitable model, terminal costs are noteworthy. Journalists asked antenna and module manufacturers about the material cost of satellite communication terminals. Respondents generally said that costs are declining rapidly and already have the capability to integrate into mainstream phone designs, but most manufacturers did not disclose specific figures.

A business manager at the Iridium booth said that Iridium has achieved positive cash flow thanks to narrowband voice and low-speed data services. However, the traditional market space is nearing saturation, and the next phase of growth needs to expand into IoT and emergency communications. Domestic low-orbit broadband constellations are still in the catch-up phase prioritizing scale, and achieving breakeven will require time and user accumulation.